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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."